Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation

Seasonal Climate Prediction and Predictability of Atmospheric Circulation

Improved Combination of Multiple Atmospheric GCM Ensembles for Seasonal Prediction

An improved Bayesian optimal weighting scheme is developed and used to combine six atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) seasonal hindcast ensembles. The approach is based on the prior belief that the forecast probabilities of tercile-category precipitation and near-surface temperature are equal to the climatological ones. The six GCMs are integrated over the 1950–97 period with observed ...

Regional atmospheric circulation over Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum and its links to precipitation

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exhibits different large-scale atmospheric conditions compared to present-day climate due to altered boundary conditions. The regional atmospheric circulation and associated precipitation patterns over Europe are characterized for the first timewith a weather typing approach (circulation weather types, CWT) for LGM paleoclimate simulations. The CWT approach is app...

Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Temperature and Atmospheric Circulation

The vast majority of variability in the instrumental surface temperature record is at annual frequencies. Systematic changes in the yearly Fourier component of surface temperature have been observed since the midtwentieth century, including a shift toward earlier seasonal transitions over land. Here it is shown that the variability in the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle of surface tempe...

Modeling of Atmospheric Regional Circulation for Event of Most Severe Spring Dust Storms on West of Iran

   Dust phenomenon is a natural occurrence that occurs widespread in arid and semi-arid regions of the world, especially in the sub-equatorial latitudes. This phenomenon is among the greatest environmental problems in the world. The release of this destructive climatic phenomenon in a scattered manner in the atmosphere varies in size, time and concentration. Since this phenomenon is influenced...